Australia's changing climate represents a significant challenge to individuals, communities, governments, businesses, industry and the environment. The projections are based on data from up to 40 global climate models, developed by institutions around the world, that were driven by four greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions scenarios.
In other words, the goal of a climate model is to project changes in climates over years, decades and longer, whereas weather predictions are interested in what is expected to happen in the coming days. The central line is the median value, and the shading is the 10th and 90th percentile range of year running means inner and single year values outer.
According to the IPCC, the extent of climate change effects on individual regions will vary over time and with the ability of different societal and environmental systems to mitigate or adapt to change. Global glacier volume will further decrease.
The grey shading indicates the period of historical simulation while three future scenarios are shown with colour coded shading. It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin and that Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease during the 21st century as global mean surface temperature rises.
This section allows users to read about and explore projections for the coastal and marine environments including sea level rise, sea surface temperatures, aragonite saturation and ocean chemistry. The high latitudes and the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to experience an increase in annual mean precipitation by the end of this century under the RCP8.
Climate models are considered successful only if they can recreate to a high degree the averages, extremes, and seasonal patterns that match up with observed climate.
Tropical cyclones may occur less often, but become more intense medium confidence.
Page updated: 28th June Climate Analogues The Climate Analogues tool is used to explore what the future climate would be like in a location of your choice.